There is a prediction that the highest number of flight cancellations due to the Iran war may occur in May. Families are advised not to panic about their summer vacation plans despite concerns about potential jet fuel shortages. Recent data indicates that airlines have cut 13,000 flights worldwide this month as a result of the Middle East conflict, leading to the removal of nearly two million seats scheduled for May.
These flight reductions are happening just before the upcoming half-term holidays. Many individuals are worried about the status of their already booked holiday flights for the upcoming peak travel season.
According to aviation expert John Strickland, the 13,000 flights scrapped this month represent only about 1% to 2% of the total scheduled flights. He cautioned against assuming that a similar number or more flights would be affected in the following months.
Mr. Strickland emphasized that airlines aim to maintain their full flight schedules and stated that the current reductions are not a massive cutback that would disrupt summer travel plans. He also mentioned that airlines are confident about the availability of jet fuel for the next six weeks, with indications of sourcing additional supplies from the US and other regions to compensate for the Gulf losses.
Some airlines have started using smaller or more fuel-efficient aircraft to prepare for potential disruptions, as reported by aviation analytics firm Cirium. In May, 120 scheduled flights from the UK to global destinations have been canceled so far, with 36 cancellations reported for June out of nearly 22,000 scheduled flights.
Following the US-Israel war with Iran, which started in late February, the price of jet fuel has doubled, leading to disruptions in shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
German airline Lufthansa has already canceled 20,000 flights and warned of significant financial impacts due to higher jet fuel prices. The airline is among the many carriers that have scaled back their operations in response to the ongoing situation.
Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, mentioned potential flight cancellations for the summer season, estimating a 5% to 10% reduction in flights during May, June, and July. British Airways’ parent company IAG is set to release updated financial results soon.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander expressed confidence that most travelers this summer will have a similar experience to the previous year. She assured that there are currently no disruptions in jet fuel supply but acknowledged the evolving nature of the situation.
Oil prices decreased to two-week lows amid reports of progress towards a peace deal between the US and Iran. Despite the drop to $102 a barrel from a recent peak above $120, Brent crude prices remain significantly higher than the pre-war level of $60.
Rory Boland from Which? Travel highlighted traveler concerns about summer plans but emphasized that the percentage of UK flight cancellations remains relatively low, even compared to standard operational cancellations by airlines. The advice for this summer is to consider booking a package holiday for better protection against potential disruptions.
Mark Tanzer, the CEO of travel trade body ABTA, reassured the public that flights are operating daily, with no issues related to fuel supply. He encouraged individuals with upcoming holiday bookings, including for the May half term, to expect their plans to proceed as scheduled despite global reports of flight cancellations.