Washington is aiming for Iran to halt its nuclear development for a period of ten to 15 years during peace negotiations, resembling a previous nuclear agreement under President Obama. The White House is currently debating the potential implications of such an agreement, considering it may signify a significant shift from America’s original stance.
President Donald Trump may not be in favor of such a deal, as it could be perceived as a retreat from the previous administration’s actions. The dismantled Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known as the Iran Deal, limited Iran’s nuclear activities. Iran is likely to exert pressure on the US by involving Yemeni Houthis to influence the Baba al-Mandeb passage.
Dr. Ilan Bergman, a former CIA and State Department consultant, highlighted the evolving political discourse from the White House. The discussion now revolves around a potential time frame of 20 years for Iran’s nuclear activities, with Iran suggesting a five-year delay. The final agreement may settle between ten and 15 years, along with restrictions on Iran’s missile capabilities and proxy networks.
The challenge lies in the similarity of this settlement to the 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by President Trump, which could pose political challenges, especially nearing the US midterm elections. The key oil trade route, the Strait of Hormuz, is currently blocked by Iran, leading to tensions with the US Navy. Talks for a peace deal have collapsed, raising concerns about a resurgence of hostilities after the April 8 ceasefire ends.
There are also apprehensions that Iran’s proxy group, the Houthis in Yemen, could escalate the situation by obstructing shipping routes, particularly the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Dr. Ilan noted the strategic significance of the East-West pipeline activated by Saudi Arabia and the potential for the Houthis to become a more significant concern in the future, demanding a robust response.