The El Niño weather pattern is projected to strengthen through 2027 and could potentially become the most intense on record, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in the coming year, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization on Thursday.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated during a news conference in Geneva that if the current trend persists, this El Niño event could surpass any observed in the past four decades, potentially exceeding existing historical records.
The UN weather agency indicated a nearly 100% probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by notably warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of certainty in the forecast is unprecedented according to the WMO.
A robust El Niño phenomenon can have a significant impact on global rainfall and temperature distributions, potentially leading to extreme weather occurrences such as typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the extraordinary scale of the current El Niño event, describing it as unprecedented and highlighting the escalating global temperatures associated with it.
El Niño occurs cyclically due to elevated sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean induced by weakening trade winds. This natural phenomenon typically recurs every two to seven years, lasting up to twelve months and causing severe weather patterns, including heavy rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already affected agricultural regions in tropical areas, contributing to a severe food shortage crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO expects the El Niño to reach its peak by the end of this year, with its repercussions extending into 2027 and likely resulting in elevated global temperatures in the following year, according to Saulo.
Saulo emphasized the WMO’s commitment to enhancing preparedness and early warning systems to address the potential impacts of the El Niño phenomenon.
The organization aims to collaborate closely with UN partners and the humanitarian sector to provide essential climate information and insights necessary to support disaster management and climate-sensitive industries like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.