With just 60 days left, Albertans are set to respond to 10 questions that may influence the province’s future.
While nine of these questions revolve around immigration and constitutional changes, the 10th question—whether Albertans wish to stay in Canada or conduct a second binding referendum on separation—has the potential to energize upcoming town halls and rallies.
As the deadline approaches, both factions are presented with limited chances to persuade the public.
This poses a significant challenge.
Keith Wilson, left, co-leader of the third-party advertiser Let Alberta Decide, and Thomas Lukaszuk, right, leader of Forever Canadian, are strategizing their next steps. (Nathan Gross/CBC)
Veteran pollster Janet Brown has been tracking public opinion for years, revealing a consistent trend: support for separatism remains significantly lower than that for remaining within Canada.
“Data has shown little change over the last eight years,” Brown noted. “Currently, only about five to eight percent of people are still undecided.”
Considering this, Brown believes the referendum campaign is shifting focus from persuasion to mobilization.
“Voter engagement is vital for both sides,” she emphasized.
Naturally, there are numerous groups vying for attention from both sides of the argument.
Here’s how four of these groups intend to tackle the next phase of the campaign.
Let Alberta Decide
A pro-independence leader mentioned that some individuals on the campaign trail have been reluctant to openly express their support for Alberta’s independence, and he questions the accuracy of current polling.
“However, strategically, we operate on the assumption that they are accurate,” said Keith Wilson of Let Alberta Decide. “We are aware of the challenges that lie ahead.”
Leading all third-party advertisers with over $415,000 in contributions as of August 13, the group is organizing a significant rally on October 17 at the Alberta Legislature, just two days before the referendum.
They are also planning traditional voter turnout initiatives, such as providing minibuses to transport individuals to polling stations.
Keith Wilson of Let Alberta Decide operates in his office, which he refers to as the “war room.” (Nathan Gross/CBC)
Support for independence appears strongest in rural areas, while urban regions show lower support. Consequently, the group is focusing its efforts on Calgary, Edmonton, and smaller cities like Lethbridge and Lloydminster.
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They are also tailoring their social media messaging to various demographics, targeting young men in their 20s facing rent issues, as well as senior citizens worried about the future of their grandchildren.
“We will gradually increase our efforts as the voting day approaches,” Wilson stated.
Forever Canadian
Last Friday, volunteers at the Forever Canadian campaign office in Edmonton were busy loading lawn signs into wagons for transport.
Organizer Thomas Lukaszuk mentioned that the group has teams “present in every municipality across Alberta” and is planning to visit more towns with their “Unity Bus.”
“I feel like we’re in the second period of a hockey game, but this campaign has been ongoing for over a year,” Lukaszuk remarked.
Thomas Lukaszuk, organizer for Forever Canadian, engages with individuals at the campaign office in Edmonton on Friday. He stated the group’s priority is to fulfill sign requests and distribute campaign materials. (Nathan Gross/CBC)
Lukaszuk noted that Forever Canadian has planned several large rallies in the coming months and intends to continue distributing lawn signs throughout the province.
The group claims to have over 18,000 volunteers from Alberta working to promote unity. For now, Lukaszuk believes the group’s function will largely remain the same.
“If we shift to get-out-the-vote efforts, we certainly have the means to do so. However, at this stage, our focus is on enhancing Canadian pride, which has proven to be effective,” he explained.
Alberta Prosperity Project/Stay Free Alberta
This organization spearheaded the citizen initiative petition aimed at prompting a vote on Alberta’s separation from Canada and sees October as the climax of years of effort.
Mitch Sylvestre, the CEO of Alberta Prosperity Project, stated that the group intends to maximize early voting, even if it’s not fully aligned with their preferences, while conducting town halls throughout Alberta.
“Our immediate goal is to ensure we mobilize voters. I believe we have a solid chance if we can get our supporters to participate,” Sylvestre suggested.
Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, views the next 60 days as a crucial final effort after years of work. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)
The group has organized a rally on August 29 at the Alberta Legislature, branding it a “gathering for a province in peril.”
In the run-up to the vote, the organization aims to encourage members to compile a list of close friends and neighbors to ensure they are motivated to vote.
Alberta’s Voice
Alberta’s Voice, led by Stephen Carter, president of Decide Campaigns, currently holds the highest contributions reported for a pro-Confederation campaign, totaling over $87,000.
Carter indicated that Alberta’s Voice plans to launch an “air war” advertising initiative, purchasing radio spots in Calgary, Edmonton, and rural Alberta.
“However, fundraising has posed our biggest hurdle, and we need to ensure we can compete against the separatist movement,” Carter acknowledged. “The leading separatist organization has raised four times our amount.”
The group is also concentrating on undecided voters, aiming for a favorable 75-25 ratio on referendum day for staying in Canada.
“Our top priority is to engage with undecided voters,” Carter remarked.
“While there aren’t many, those who are uncertain will determine if we face this issue again in the future or if we can resolve it once and for all.”
Alberta’s Voice is behind the “no to the nine” signs, emphasizing the significance of voter turnout, as low participation may benefit the pro-separation faction. (Jennifer Keiller/CBC)
The group plans to initiate a campaign college in early September to train volunteers on voter mobilization tactics. They also aim to implement a “captain system,” where volunteers would be responsible for reaching out to others via email and phone to encourage them to vote on election day.
“Our goal is to enroll 100,000 individuals through this method,” Carter stated. “This would significantly enhance overall voter turnout.”
“We’re targeting those who may not be highly engaged but are connected to those who are.”
With the referendum just 60 days away, Elections Alberta is also permitting residents to vote by mail, with deadlines approaching. Special ballot packages must be submitted by 5 p.m. on October 16.